Report of the Mayor for York and North Yorkshire to the Police, Fire and Crime Panel

 

28th January 2025

 

Status: For decision

 

The 2025/26 Police Precept Proposal

 

1        Purpose

 

1.1         Legislation requires that I agree my budget and associated precept and basic council tax for the forthcoming year before 1st March each year. However before doing so I must notify this Panel of the precept which I propose to issue for the following year.

 

2        Recommendations

 

2.1         The Panel is asked to consider my proposal to set the Band D Police Element of the Council Tax within North Yorkshire for 2025/26 at £320.86. This is an increase of £14, or 4.56%, over the 2024/25 level.

 

2.2         The Panel is asked to support this proposal.

 

3        Reasons

 

3.1     The balance of the cost of the police service not paid for by central government is met by local taxpayers through a precept on their council tax. In North Yorkshire this will equate to just over 45% of the overall income that I will receive for Policing in 2025/26. It is the responsibility of the two local billing authorities to collect this.

 

3.2         Legislation requires the precept for 2025/26 to be set before 1st March 2025 and that the first step in enabling this to happen is that I am required to inform this panel of my proposed precept by the 1st February 2025. Which I did by submitting this report prior to that date.

 

 

 

 

 

3.3         In making my proposal on the Police precept I have taken into account the following:

·         The views of the public of North Yorkshire

·         The financial impact on the people of North Yorkshire.

·         The financial needs of the organisation as currently projected both for 2025/26 and in the future.

·         Current levels of inflation

·         The limits imposed by the Government on a precept increase before a referendum would be triggered in North Yorkshire.

·         I have discussed my proposals with the Chief Constable and engaged and consulted with the public on the options available to me.

 

3.4         Police Funding Settlement 2025/26

3.5         The 2025-26 Provisional Settlement was announced on 17 December in a written ministerial statement by the Minister of State for Crime, Policing and Fire, Dame Diana Johnson.

 

3.6         The Minister said “I am pleased to announce that, for 2025-26, funding to police forces will total up to £17.4 billion, an increase of up to £986.9 million when compared to the 2024-25 police funding settlement…a real terms increase in force funding of 3.5%, and a cash increase of 6.0%. The additional funding confirmed through this settlement will cover the costs of the police officer pay awards and fund the recruitment and redeployment of more neighbourhood police and PSCOs. … The investments announced today are in addition to the provision of one-off funding of £175.0 million we announced in July to support the costs of the 24-25 pay award.”

 

3.7         Full details of the Settlement can be found on the Home Office gov.uk pages.

 

3.8         Prior to the publication of the settlement speeches were given by both the Prime Minister and Home Secretary outlining reforms for policing.

 

3.9         On 5 December, the Prime Minister promised a named police officer for every neighbourhood in England and Wales and reiterated the party’s manifesto commitment to recruit 13,000 additional officers, PCSOs and special constables.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.10      Headlines within the Provisional Settlement

The proposed settlement for 2025-26 will provide a total of up to £19.5 billion for policing, an increase of up to £1 billion when compared to 2024-25. Of this amount, funding available to Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs) for their local police force will increase by up to an additional £986.9 million in 2025-26, a 6.0% cash increase and 3.5% real terms increase. This assumes PCCs make use of the full precept flexibility of £14 for English forces.

 

3.11      The summary headlines within the Provisional Settlement were:

·         6% average increase in funding – including precept and NICs compensation.

 

·         3.7% flat rate increase in Core Grant for all PCC areas.

 

·         £986.9m increase in funding between 2024-25 and 2025-26, of which £329.8 (33%) will come from precept.

 

·         The remaining £657.1m is coming primarily from:

o   £263m increase in Core Grant,

o   £230m for employer NICs compensation,

o   A redistribution of £75m from Police Uplift Grant, and

o   A new £100m Neighbourhood Policing Grant.

 

·         Commitment that Firearm Licencing Fees increase to cover costs – “when Parliamentary time allows”. – this has subsequently been implemented.

 

·         Requirement to participate in Police Efficiency and Collaboration Programme, anticipated to deliver hundreds of millions of pounds by the end of the Parliament.

 

·         A new Performance Unit will be established in the Home Office - to “drive up performance and standards”

 

3.12      Police Officer Maintenance Grant

3.13      Prior to the publication of today’s provisional settlement, it was expected that there would be a continuation of Police Officer Uplift funding for the recruitment of the final officers (towards the 20,000 total). The Ministerial Statement confirms ongoing funding of £270m in 2025-26 as well as a £39.5m increase in the Additional Recruitment Grant (up to £106m in 2025-26).

 

3.14      This brings the total Officer Maintenance Funding to £376m – a £48m decrease on the total of £424m in 2024-25.

 

3.15      The Ministerial Statement says “We are grateful to those forces who have gone above and beyond in recruiting additional officers to maximise the strength of their workforce. We expect that these forces prioritise maintaining these officer numbers and have provided funding to achieve this”.

 

3.16      Police forces will still be expected to meet officer number targets in return for funding. However, the Written Ministerial Statement says that the “Home Office has listened to feedback … on the need for increased flexibility … We have therefore rebalanced the funding available in core grant and the ringfence for the purpose of maintaining officers for 2025-26”. and

 

3.17      “This Government is committed to ensuring police forces are supported to effectively tackle crime. We are clear that visible police is essential to restoring public confidence in the police. As a result, our expectation is that officer numbers must be protected in 2025-26. This includes officers recruited through additional recruitment schemes carried out in 23-24 and 24-25.”

 

3.18      The Police Uplift Grant for North Yorkshire has decreased by £162k from £5,096, to £4,934k.

 

3.19      This comes with a requirement for the Force to achieve 1,673 Police Officers (Headcount) in 2025/26, this is 9 higher than the initial 2024/25 target.

 

3.20      There appears to be no reflection in the comparator figures for 2024/25 that North Yorkshire received a further £432k during 2024/25 to deliver 1,673 Police Officers.

 

3.21      Therefore, the real reduction in the Uplift Grant – to maintain 1,673 Police Officers is £595k.

 

3.22      Pay Award

3.23      During 2024/25 both Police Officers and Police Staff were awarded a 4.75% pay award with effect from the 1st September 2024. The additional cost of a 4.75% award (above a 2.5% assumption) was £455m across Policing, and this has been funded by the Government.

 

3.24      The ministerial statement highlights that £175m of this was given in-year in 2024-25 with a further £280m awarded for 2025/26.

 

3.25      Pensions Grant

3.26      The total Pensions Gant of £4,622k is supposed to fund an increase in the Employers Pension Contribution Rate that was 21.3% in 2018/19 and is now 35.3%.

 

3.27      The real cost of this 14% increase, to North Yorkshire, is £10m – a shortfall of around £5.4m per year, which is being absorbed and/or has been funded by precept increases in previous years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.28      Funding for Neighbourhood Policing

3.29      The provisional settlement includes a new Neighbourhood Policing Grant, worth £100m in recognition of the Government’s priority for police visibility and neighbourhood policing.

 

3.30      This fund is intended to support the recruitment of additional, and redeployed, neighbourhood police officers, PCSOs and Special Constables in 2025-26 and will form part of a multi-year programme, spanning the length of the Parliament. 

 

3.31      The funding was allocated on share of Core Grant however the conditions of the Grant are still to be confirmed. North Yorkshire has received £973k.

 

3.32      Core Funding

3.33      Based on the analysis released by the Government, Core Funding to PCC’s has increased by 6% in 2025/26, this however assumes that all PCCs increase their Precept by £14, this also assumes that the Tax Base in all areas increase by 0.8%.

 

3.34      The Government calculate the increase in North Yorkshire (including a £14 increase in Precept) would be 5.8%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.35      What does this mean for North Yorkshire in 2025/26 in terms of Funding?

·         An increase in of Core Police Grant of £3,299k

·         A decrease in Police Officer Maintenance Grant of £162k.

·         A decrease in the Police Pension Grant of £308k

·         A new Neighbourhood Policing Guarantee Grant of £973k

·         A National Insurance increase Grant of £2,856k

 

3.36      Based on the precept being proposed, of £320.86 for a Band D property, then the overall impact on the Core funding for the organisation is set to increase by 6.8%, or just over £13.8m, as set out in the table below:

 

 

 

3.37      Government Funding for 2026/27 and beyond

3.38      The Chancellor has launched a multi-year Spending Review which will set spending plans for a minimum of three years of the five-year forecast period.

 

3.39      The Spending Review will conclude in spring 2025. Departmental expenditure limits for 2025-26 will be set alongside the Budget in October, to provide departments with necessary certainty.

 

3.40      This Spending Review will “take a mission-led, reform-driven and tech-enabled approach to improving public services.”

 

3.41      Until the details of this Spending Review are announced then the current financial plan has therefore assumed that Government Funding will continue to increase by CPI and that this will be 2%.

 

3.42      The current plan also assumes that PCC’s will continue to be provided with precept limits set via a monetary, instead of a percentage, increase and that increases of at least £12 per year will be possible

 

3.43      Top Slices

3.44      In 2025-26, reallocations (also referred to as ‘top slices’) total £914.3m, a £123.8m reduction over 2024-25 (when reallocations totalled £1,038.1m). However, six previous top-slices are now being funded from within the Home Office’s wider budget.  Funding arrangements to be confirmed in due course. 

•        Arm’s Length Bodies (was £65.7m).

•        Forensics (£13m in 2024-25).

•        Fraud (£18.1m in 2024-25).

•        Cyber Crime (£13.1m in 2024-25).

•        Tackling Exploitation and Abuse (£17.6m).

•        Police Productivity and Innovation (worth £11m in 2024-25). 

 

3.45      Funding remains, but has been reduced, for PFI, National Policing Capabilities, NPCC Programmes and Capital (see table). 

 

3.46      There are increases of £15m for Special Grant, £6.6m for ROCU and £4.1m for Serious Violence and a new top-slice of £1.5m for Police Aviation (previously NPAS).

 

3.47      Council Tax Legacy Grant

3.48      The Council Tax Legacy Grants relating to Council Tax Freeze grants from 2011-12, 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16 as well as Local Council Tax Support (LCTS) funding remains separately identifiable in 2024-25. These have again remained flat cash settlements and therefore take no account of any changes for inflation or local need since they were awarded and is another area where additional costs are having to be ‘absorbed’.

 

3.49      Counter Terrorism

3.50      The Minister announced a total of £1,160.3m for Counter Terrorism Policing, a £143m increase (14%) on the £1,017.5m for 2024-25. PCCs will be notified separately of force-level funding allocations for CT policing, which will not be made public for security reasons.

 

3.51      Ministry of Justice Grants

3.52      The Mayor expects to receive £1,853k from the Ministry of Justice in 2025/26 to deliver Victims Services, this is a reduction of £40k from last year.

 

3.53      Additional Funding

3.54      Beyond the usual Core Funding and Specific Grant funding, the Mayor is currently receiving several areas of funding in 2024/25 that have not yet been confirmed for 2025/26, such as Serious Violence Duty Funding.

 

 

 

3.43      MTFP Assumptions

When the 2023/24 budget was set in February 2023 the forecasts were underpinned by the following assumptions:

 

·         Pay Awards:

o   2024/25 – 2.5% increase

o   2025/26 and beyond – 2.0% increase

 

·         Precept: Increases of:

o   2024/25 – £11.77 or 3.99%

o   2025/26 and beyond – £12 per annum

 

·         Tax Base increases of:

o   2024/25 – 1.1%

o   2025/26 and beyond – 1.4% per annum

 

·         Government Grants increases of:

o   2025/26 and beyond – 2.0%

 

·         Impact of Funding Formula review – Nil

 

3.44      Clearly much has changed in the last year and therefore in line with good planning our assumptions remain under review and are updated with the best information available. It is expected that the MTFP for 2025/26 and beyond will assume the following:

 

·         Pay Awards:

o   2025/26 – 2.5% increase

o   2026/27 and beyond – 2.0% increase

 

·         Precept: Increases of:

o   2025/26 – £14 or 4.56%

o   2026/27 and beyond – £12 per annum

 

·         Tax Base increases of:

o   2025/26 – 2.9%

o   2026/27 and beyond – 1.4% per annum

 

·         Government Grants increases of:

o   2026/27 and beyond – 2.0%

 

·         Impact of Funding Formula review – Nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

4             Local Financial Context

4.1         Income Forecasts

4.2         Based on these revised assumptions and the information received and forecast around other areas of funding then the entire funding expected to be available to the Mayor for Policing for the next 4 years, in comparison to 2024/25, is as follows:

 

 

4.3         Once all funding sources have been factored in then we currently forecast that Total Funding will increase by just over £10.3m, or 4.7% in 2025/26.

 

4.4         Pay Increases and Inflation Pressures

4.5         While the overall increases in Total Funding seem reasonable across most of the life of the plan, and very good in 2025/26, it is important to reflect on the additional costs that need to be funded from these increases.

 

4.6         The 2024/25 pay budgets had forecast that pay awards would be 2.5% during 2024/25. However, given the higher levels of inflation over the last couple of years, both pay awards were settled at 4.75%.

 

4.7         The recurring impact of this additional 2.25% is around £3.8m of additional costs from 2025/26 onwards. This higher pay award has been fully funded by the Government which is one of the reasons that the increase in income in 2025/26 is higher.

 

4.8         In addition to the current year position on pay, the MTFP now forecasts that the pay award for all employees will be 2.5% for 2025/26, this is expected to add around £2.5m to the pay costs in 2025/26.

 

4.9         The Autumn Budget included an increase to employer’s National Insurance contributions and corresponding compensation for the Public Sector. These increases are expected to add around £3.3m to the overall budget costs, which would be £450k lower than the grant received, and is another reason why the income increase in 2025/26 is higher than the following years.

 

 

4.10      The Force continues to invest into the Force Control Room with savings made from within non-pay areas predominantly being used to fund additional investment in this vital area of service delivery.

 

4.11      The impact of these assumptions and changes are additional costs of almost £11.2m in 2025/26, in comparison to the 2024/25 original budget.

 

 

4.12      The pay assumptions alone take up more than 100% of the increase in funding that is forecast between 2024/25 and 2025/26.

 

4.13      In addition to pay pressures there are a significant number of non-pay budgets that have increased as a result on unavoidable costs and inflation, however these have been more than offset by reductions in budget areas that have reduced as they have direct links to income (such as Other Non Salary and Commissioning Services), that is no longer going to be received.

 

4.14      These result in these non-pay budget increased overall by only £45k as set out in the table below:

 

 

4.15      The significant decrease in ‘Other Non-Salary’ relates predominantly to Apprentice Levy Funded training of Police Officers. A reduction of just over £1m of income has been removed from the budget alongside the corresponding expenditure to reflect the training profile for 2025/26 and the subsequent drawdown from the Apprenticeship Levy.

 

4.16      The reduced Commissioned Service budget reflect that the Mayor has not received any indication that the Anti-Social Behaviour Grant of £1m will continue in 2025/26, there has been no announcement whether there will be any Safer Streets funding for 2025/26, and therefore the corresponding expenditure budgets have been deleted.

 

4.17      Putting together all of the budget changes together, along with movements on reserves and funds provided to support the capital programme, provides the following movements from the budget set in 2024/25:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.18      Key Areas for Investment during 2025/26

4.19      In terms of 2024/25, the budget and proposed precept that was agreed was to underpin the organisation re-design project and a wider realignment of resources. The identified the need to implement the following:

·         An uplift in specialist safeguarding teams to safeguard the most vulnerable in North Yorkshire sees an investment of around £2m.

 

·         Investment into Investigation Teams to mitigate risks to vulnerable people sees investment of over £1m into Detectives.

 

·         Further investment into the Force Control Room of £1m to further enhance the service to the public in this vital area is also planned.

 

·         Other investments into the Digital Forensics Unit, Professional Standards Unit, Neighbourhoods and Criminal Justice of over £1m are also planned.

 

4.20      Customer Contact

4.21      The last 2 years has seen a significant and much-needed investment into the Force Control Room to improve 999 emergency call handling times, improve 101 call handling times, and expand the available methods through which the public can make contact with the police. Demand profiling had identified that in comparison to other forces, North Yorkshire Police had a significantly smaller workforce in the control room than other comparable forces.

 

4.22      As a result an investment of around £3m per year was included across the 2023/24 and 2024/25 plans to fund the required increases in roles within the FCR. This resulted in a significant increase in the number of Communications Officers, who handle 999 and 101 calls, as well as investment in additional Dispatchers to manage the dispatch of police resources, Incident Management roles and a dedicated training team to deliver specialist FCR training.

 

4.23      Impact of the Investment

4.24      As presented to my On-line Public Meeting on the 23rd January, the performance of the Force Control Room has significantly improved over the last 2 years:

·    The average time to answer a 999 call in December was just 4 seconds

·    With almost 95% of 999 calls in December answered within 10 seconds

·   The Force’s Single Non-Emergency number (101) performance has also significantly improved with average call answer times reducing from 5:38 in February 2022 to 3:14 in December 2024.

·   And of significant importance is that the identification and recording of Vulnerability and Repeat Victims has increased from 65% to now being over 90%.

 

 

4.25      Front Line Response

4.26      The front-line uniformed response teams are often the first on scene at most incidents and are the core visible resources in our communities alongside our neighbourhood policing teams. These officers are predominantly newly recruited and trained officers joining the service before they specialise across the service. Therefore, the continued recruitment and maintenance of these officers through the uplift retention is essential to front line visible policing.

 

4.27      The Organisational Re-design work that was a large part of last year’s budget and precept proposals has resulted in significant improvements in response times versus the Force’s Service Level agreements as shown in the table below:

 

Response Performance

Organisational Redesign Baseline Sept 2022

Last 28 days rounded (data 13 Jan 2025)

Immediate Urban

65%

85%

Immediate Rural

63%

81%

Priority

65%

80%

 

 

4.28      The 2024/25 precept was set based on the average the number of Police Officers within North Yorkshire being 1,673 (Headcount) and this is being maintained within 2025/26.

 

4.29      The Force have set out there priorities for 2025/26, linking to those areas that I have indicated as a priority in the Police and Crime Plan.

 

4.30      As part of the Force’s Strategic Planning cycle Senior Leader assessed and discussed unmet need against threat, harm and risk and identity any new and emerging pressures. Where gaps were identified these were prioritised with some of the main investment included within the budget and precept proposal including the following:

 

4.31      Vulnerability Assessment Team (VAT)

4.32      The VAT team is the organisation’s conduit/gateway through which all safeguarding concerns are addressed both internally and externally.  The team works in partnership to share information, risk assess and agree safety planning for children and vulnerable adults.  The team is a force wide resource, co-located with Local Authorities in North Yorkshire and City of York. 

 

4.33      The demand into the team in recent years has increased significantly, and therefore the proposal is to invest additional resources into the specialist VAT Team and an evidenced based business case has established the requirements.

 

 

 

4.34      Specialist capability - Authorised Firearms Office

4.35      The Firearms Support Unit (FSU) is critical to keeping people safe in North Yorkshire. As part of the Strategic Policing Requirement (SPR), Armed Policing is a key national requirement, and each force must maintain an Armed Policing capability. The NYP Armed Policing Strategic Threat & Risk Assessment sets out the threats, risks and demands specifically placed upon North Yorkshire Police and how we aim to mitigate these through resourcing, training, governance, and deployment.

 

4.36      The operating model has been reviewed and assessed demand against threat, harm and risk, which has resulted in an increase in establishment of two sergeants and nine constables.

 

4.37      Neighbourhood Review

4.38      The purpose of the review is to provide an overview of Neighbourhood Policing currently, and to consider what is required for the force to deliver its vision of delivering outstanding Neighbourhood Policing to the communities of North Yorkshire.

 

4.39      It will outline the current picture in terms of staffing numbers and distribution of the Neighbourhood Police Teams across the organisation. Neighbourhood Policing Teams (NPTs) have a clear purpose and remit.

 

4.40      The Mayor and Deputy Mayor are keen to see how this aligns with the Neighbourhood Policing Guarantee and the Police and Crime Plan. The precept proposal assumes no changes to the investment for this area, however the review may propose a different resource mix given the challenges in recruitment of PCSOs over the last 3/4 years and a number of current vacancies against the budgeted establishment.

 

4.41      There are a number of system investments and developments included within the financial plans, which are expected to drive improvements in service and efficiencies for the Force, the include:

 

4.42      Citizen Engagement Portal

4.43      Which is a software solution that allows the public and officers to interact throughout the life and journey of an incident.

   

4.44      Public contact with the Police service, predominantly begins with the force control room and their journey continues through to a conclusion. This may take hours or in some cases, years. 

 

4.45      Throughout this time contact is required by the police to the public (victim) and is mandated in the Victims Code. Maintaining victim updates and informing them of the progress of their case is vital to ensuring that they do not disengage with the process.

 

4.46      The solution will allow for automatic updates to go to victims of crime. Creating a two-way portal for updates to be provided and contact to be made with the officer / investigator. The updates include automated messaging, reminders, and alerts to ensure victims are continually informed and the Victims Code is met.

 

4.47      Mobile Policing Solution

4.48      North Yorkshire police do not have a mobile application to support officers when away from a station. Functionality is limited to a few in house applications. Many of the applications available do not support working when there is no data signal to connect back to NYP systems and cannot reuse data across the applications resulting in dual data entry.

 

4.49      The implementation of this solution is expected to deliver benefits around productivity and efficiency.

 

4.50      Early Intervention and Prevention

4.51      Beyond investment within the Force, a key part of the Police and Crime Plan is focussed on Early Intervention and Prevention. A further £185k of investment in Young Person Diversion has been allocated within the budget and would see the level of investment in this area double.

 

4.52      Capital Programme

4.53      There is a significant programme of investment needed across a number of areas within the Force.

 

4.54      After a number of years of challenges in terms of vehicle procurement there is a need for significant investment and some element of catch up in this area.

 

4.55      Across the 5 years of the current Capital Programme, including 2024/25 the Force have set out plans to replace vehicles that will total over £18m.

 

4.56      Plans to invest in and maintain the Police Estate is expected to need investment of almost £10m over the next 5 years, while maintaining the IT infrastructure of the Force and ensuring IT equipment is replaced and kept up to date is expected to cost in excess of £24m across the next 5 years.

 

4.57      Change Pipeline

A number of items that were previously included within the Change Pipeline have now transitioned into either the Capital Programme and/or incorporated into the Revenue Budgets based on approved business cases received during 2024/25.

 

4.58      As a result of this, and the need to ensure it remains affordable, the Change Pipeline is now forecast at just under £5m across the next 5 years.

 

4.59      It is expected that these areas will be developed into business cases and if approved added to the Capital and/or Revenue Budgets as required. 

4.60      The funding for this change and investment is factored into the overall approach to financing of the Capital Programme.

 

4.61      A summary of the Capital Programme, the Change Pipeline and the financing of this is set out at Appendix 2.   

 

5     Public Consultation

 

5.1         To further inform the decision around the proposed precept for 2025/26 consultation has been undertaken with the public to ascertain their feedback and thoughts on this subject.

 

5.2         The consultation was conducted via an online survey.

 

5.3         The public were asked the following question:

5.4         North Yorkshire Police currently has a budget of £221 million. Around £97 million of this (44 per cent) comes from a precept on your council tax.

 

5.5         To maintain the current level of service, North Yorkshire Police will need an extra £15 million to cover inflation and other ongoing costs. About £5m of this would need to be raised through the precept.

 

5.6         The Government has set a national limit allowing an increase of up to £14 in policing precepts for an average Band D property. If this was applied in York and North Yorkshire it would raise £4.4 million.

 

5.7         The following options are based on the amount of council tax an average Band D property would pay for policing. This is currently £306.86 per year.

 

5.8         How much more are you willing to pay each year for policing in York and North Yorkshire?

·         Up to £12 a year more (£1 per month),

This would raise around £3.8million, however is significantly below organisations inflationary pressures and would likely lead to reductions in current levels of service delivery unless savings could be delivered.

 

·         Up to £14 a year more (£1.17 per month),

This would raise around £4.4 million, matching the organisation’s inflationary pressures. Current levels of service delivery would be maintained and it would hopefully allow some investment. For example, in neighbourhood policing, early intervention and prevention activities and tackling violence against women and girls.

 

·         Up to £18 a year more (£1.50 per month),

This would raise around £5.7 million and is likely to be higher than the organisation’s inflationary pressures, allowing more significant investment. For example, in neighbourhood policing, early intervention and prevention activities and tackling violence against women and girls.

5.9         In total 2,311 responses were received with 2,005 responses to the finance question. The results of the consultation are detailed at Appendix 4.

 

5.10      The results from the consultation show the majority (68%) support an increase of £14 or more in the policing precept

 

5.11      A summary of the overall results is shown in the table below:

 

*figures may not add to 100% due to rounding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Implications

5.12      The Tax Base

The two local Councils have notified the Mayor of their tax bases for 2025/26 as set out in the table below:

 

 

5.13      The tax base is expressed in terms of Band D equivalent properties. Actual properties are converted to Band D equivalent by allowing for the relevant value of their tax bands as set down in legislation (ranging from 2/3rds for Band A to double for Band H; discounts for single person occupation, vacant properties, people with disabilities etc;) and a percentage is deducted for non-collection. Allowance is also made for anticipated changes in the number of properties.

 

5.14      The tax base calculated by the billing authorities differ from the figures used by the Government (which assumes 100% collection) in calculating Grant Formula entitlements.

 

5.15      As can be seen from the table above the number of Band D equivalent properties across North Yorkshire has increased significantly in 2025-26, in comparison to 2024-25, by 9,124 – this equates to an increase of 2.90%.

 

5.16      The higher than usual increase has been driven by the change in policy within the North Yorkshire Council area where Second Homes within the Council Area pay Council Tax at double the effective rate. This policy change has added an additional 5,465.60 Band D Equivalent properties to the Council Tax base, and based on the proposed precept generates an additional £1,754k for investment in Policing and Crime services.

 

5.17      The 2025/26 tax base is therefore 324,231.47 Band D Equivalent properties

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.18      Setting the Council Tax

5.19      The precept calculation needs to take account of the net surplus and deficit on the billing authority collection funds. Projected surplus/deficits on the individual funds are shown in the table below.

 

 

5.20      The surplus/deficits that have arisen need to be returned through the precept. The final precept to be levied will reflect the position on each council’s collection fund.

 

5.21      Financial Summary

Net Budget Requirement

Based on the proposed precept increase of £14, or 4.56%, the Net Budget Requirement (NBR) for 2025/26, in comparison to 2024/25, is set out in the table below:

 

 

5.22      There is an increase in the Funding for Net Budget Requirement available to the Mayor of £10,499k based on a £14 increase in precept. This equates to an increase of 5.4%.

 

5.23      It is important to recognise that the Net Budget Requirement does not include specific grants nor ‘other’ income that are referred to elsewhere within the report.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.24      Precept Calculations

The final precept calculations are set out in the tables below based on a 4.56%, or £14, increase:

 

 

5.25      The ‘basic amount’ of council tax is the rate for a Band D property. It is calculated by dividing the Council Tax Requirement by the total tax base i.e. £104,032,909 by 324,231.47 giving a council tax rate for Band D properties of £320.86.

 

5.26      The proposed council tax rate for each property band is determined in accordance with the statutory proportions and is set out in the table below, it also shows the increases for each Band in comparison to 2024/25. It is advised that the tax rates should be calculated to more than 2 decimal places

 

 

5.27      As you will see from the table above the impact of the proposal to increase the Police precept by 4.56%, or £14, will increase a household council tax bill by 27 pence per week for a Band D property.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6     Conclusion

6.1         The Police Settlement for 2025/26 has provided the Mayor with an increase in Core Government Funding of £6,658k, or 6.2%.

 

6.2         Unfortunately all of this funding increase is either specifically linked to expenditure or linked to decisions already made nationally, as per the below:

 

·         £3,137k more has been provided in additional core grant to cover the costs of last year’s pay award and to ensure Police Officer numbers are maintained at 1,673.

·         £2,856k has been provided to pay for higher Employer’s National Insurance Contributions. Although this is around £450k less than needed.

·         £973k has been provided to support the Neighbourhood Policing Guarantee

 

6.3         The precept increase is therefore required to fund all inflationary pressures, including the 2025/26 pay award, across a budget of over £220m.

 

6.4         Each £1 increase in the precept in North Yorkshire provides around £325k of additional precept income on a recurring basis – so just over £4.5m per year of additional income would be generated if the precept was increased by £14.

 

6.5         In addition to the proposed precept increase, growth in the Tax Base offset by changes in the Collection Fund surplus means that around £7.2m would then be available, from the Police Precept income, to meet all of the pay and non-pay pressures that have been set out within this report.

 

6.6         Reserves are currently forecast to reduce by around £13m (from £27m) during the life of the Medium Term Financial. This is predominantly to support the Capital programme, and therefore ultimately the Revenue budget, to focus as much funding on service delivery as possible during 2025/26 and beyond.

 

6.7         The organisational need for an increase, aligned with some significant support from the public for an increase, has lead me to propose a police precept for 2025/26 of £320.86 for a Band D property within North Yorkshire. This is an increase of £14, or 4.56% per annum, from the 2024/25 level

 

To aid the Panel in considering my proposal on Precept I attach to this report:

·      Appendix 1 – Draft Budget based on a £14 or 4.56% Precept Increase

·      Appendix 2 – Draft Capital Programme

·      Appendix 3 – Draft Forecast Reserves Schedule

·      Appendix 4 – Report on Police Precept Consultation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 


APPENDIX 4

 

Precept Consultation Report 2025-2026

 

Policing

 

 

Contents

 

1.0        Background and Consultation Approach. 2

1.1       Background. 2

1.2       Consultation Approach. 2

2.0        Respondent Profile. 3

3.0        Main findings. 4

3.1       Level of Support for Precept Increase. 4

3.2       Sub-Group Analysis. 5

3.3       General Comments on the Police Precept 6

Appendix: Precept Survey. 7

 


1.0    Background and Consultation Approach

 

1.1       Background

Annual council tax bills inform residents about their contributions to local council services and other essential public services across York and North Yorkshire, such as the Police and Fire and Rescue Service. These contributions are known as “precepts” and vary based on the property band. 

The Mayor is legally responsible for setting both the policing precept and the Mayoral General Precept, which now includes fire and rescue services. The Government sets national referendum principles that cap council tax increases before a referendum is required. These principles apply to the policing precept but not to the Mayoral General Precept.

When setting the policing precept, the Mayor must consider the views of council tax payers across York and North Yorkshire. Although consultation on the Mayoral General Precept is not legally required, it ensures transparency, accountability, and public engagement in decisions affecting local taxation and public services. 

For the 2025/2026 period, it is assumed that the Mayor will not increase any ‘non-fire’ elements of the Mayoral General Precept and will only seek to raise the ‘fire and rescue’ element. 

 

1.2       Consultation Approach

The Mayor’s precept consultation aimed to understand how much more the public would be prepared to pay via their council tax for policing and separately for fire and rescue services in 2025/2026.   

Between 2 December 2024 and 20 January 2025, an online, self-completion survey was open to the public of York and North Yorkshire with paper copies available on request and to download. Questions around both precepting areas were combined within one survey. The order in which people considered each was rotated; 50% answered the policing precept question first, 50% the fire and rescue precept question. 

To help gain a more representative sample, a number of targeted community engagement activities were conducted to increase participation from minority groups. These activities included high street outreach events across the county, interactions with local businesses and emails to seldom-heard communities.  Over 2400 contacts were made, 1200 individual and 1200 via email, and many more promotional leaflets were distributed.  

A comprehensive Communications Plan ensured the survey was extensively promoted via media releases and social media including; Facebook and Nextdoor (reaching 77,879 households in 421 neighbourhoods).  Posters and leaflets were distributed to all North Yorkshire and City of York libraries to raise awareness of the survey. All users of the Community Messaging system in North Yorkshire and the City of York (16,000 people) were notified about the survey and an email was sent to all local MPs and Councillors in December, to raise community awareness.   Stakeholders and York businesses were provided with a toolkit to help promote the survey and asked to engage their staff in the consultation. The Mayor also recorded three videos to help promote the consultation.

During the consultation period, responses were reviewed and targeted social media posts were used to increase responses from underrepresented areas and communities.

The consultation yielded 2,311 responses.

2.0    Respondent Profile

A total of 2,311 responses were received to the Mayor’s 2025/2026 precept consultation. The following tables provide a profile of the respondents. Figures may not always sum to 100% due to rounding.

The questionnaire was made freely available to any individual who pays council tax in York or North Yorkshire. This means that the response profile, particularly among younger age groups, may not be fully representative of the York and North Yorkshire population.

Table 1: Responses by Demographics (Mid-Year Population Estimates 2020 for age and gender; Census 2011 for ethnic group and disability)

Characteristic

Count 

% Valid responses  

* York and North Yorkshire population 16+ % 

AGE

Under 25 

20

1%

12% 

25-35 

167

8%

14% 

36-45 

196

10%

13% 

46-55 

299

15%

16% 

56-65 

451

22%

17% 

66-75 

551

27%

15% 

Over 75 

333

17%

13% 

TOTAL 

2017

100% 

100% 

GENDER

Male 

1182

59%

49% 

Female 

828

41%

51% 

TOTAL 

2010

100% 

100% 

ETHNIC GROUP

White  

1933

97%

97% 

Other Ethnic Background

51

3%

3% 

TOTAL 

1984 

100% 

100% 

DISABILITY (self-defined)

Yes

510

26%

/

No

1476

74%

/

TOTAL

1986

100%

/ 

Table 2 below indicates that the responses are broadly representative by location (although York in particular is under-represented and Hambleton over-represented).

 

 

Table 2: Responses by Area compared to the North Yorkshire population aged 16+ (Census 2011)

Location (where live)

Count 

% Valid responses  

* York and North Yorkshire population 16+ % 

Craven 

158

7%

7% 

Hambleton 

455

21%

11% 

Harrogate 

337

16%

19% 

Richmondshire 

209

10%

6% 

Ryedale 

155

7%

7% 

Scarborough 

247

12%

13% 

Selby 

208

10%

11% 

York 

364

17%

26% 

TOTAL 

2133

100% 

100% 


3.0    Main findings

3.1       Level of Support for Precept Increase

Respondents were provided with information about the funding and budget of North Yorkshire Police. The questionnaire is appended for reference.

The following options are based on the amount of council tax an average Band D property would pay for policing. This is currently £306.86 per year.

 

Question: How much more are you willing to pay each year for policing in York and North Yorkshire?

  • Up to £12 a year (£1 per month)

This would raise around £3.8 million but is below the organisation's inflationary pressures and would likely lead to reductions in current levels of service delivery unless savings could be delivered.

  • Up to £14 a year (£1.17 per month)

This would raise around £4.4 million, matching the organisation’s inflationary pressures. Current levels of service delivery would be maintained and it would hopefully allow some investment. For example, in neighbourhood policing, early intervention and prevention activities and tackling violence against women and girls.

  • Up to £18 a year (£1.50 per month)

This would raise around £5.7 million and is likely to be higher than the organisation’s inflationary pressures, allowing more significant investment. For example, in neighbourhood policing, early intervention and prevention activities and tackling violence against women and girls.

Responses to the policing precept question are summarised in Figure 1 below.  The majority of respondents (66%) support an increase of at least £14, the most popular option being an increase of up to £18 (44%).

Figure 1: Additional amount people are willing to pay for policing


 

3.2       Sub-Group Analysis

Table 4 below provides an analysis of opinion by Sub-Groups.

There is a positive correlation between household income and the additional amount people are willing to pay for policing services. Respondents with a household income under £20,000 were much more likely to choose the lowest increase of up to £12, while those with an income above £20,000 were more likely to choose the highest increase of up to £18.  

Those living in Craven, Harrogate, Richmondshire and Selby and people under 35 or over 66 years old are most likely to support an increase of at least £14 (over 70% of respondents).

Table 4: Opinion by Sub-Groups (bases: those answering in brackets)

Sub-group

Up to £12

Up to £14

Up to £18

Total who support an increase of at least £14

TOTAL (2005)

32%

24%

44%

68%

BY AREA

Craven (140)

29%

24%

47%

71%

Hambleton (426)

37%

23%

40%

63%

Harrogate (300)

28%

25%

47%

72%

Richmondshire (190)

29%

29%

42%

71%

Ryedale (133)

31%

25%

44%

69%

Scarborough (208)

34%

23%

42%

65%

Selby (190)

30%

22%

48%

70%

York (328)

34%

20%

46%

66%

BY AGE

18-24 (20)

30%

20%

50%

70%

25-35 (153)

30%

18%

52%

70%

36-45 (180)

36%

23%

42%

65%

46-55 (272)

39%

17%

44%

61%

56-65 (399)

34%

20%

46%

66%

66-75 (516)

28%

26%

46%

72%

Over 75 (293)

22%

33%

45%

78%

BY GENDER

Male (1,055)

31%

22%

47%

69%

Female (769)

31%

26%

43%

69%

BY DISBABILITY (self-defined)

Yes (442)

34%

35%

41%

76%

No (1364)

29%

23%

47%

70%

BY ETHNICITY

White (1762)

31%

23%

46%

69%

Other ethnicity (44)

43%

27%

30%

57%


 

Sub-group

Up to £12

Up to £14

Up to £18

Total who support an increase of at least £14

BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

Less than £10,000 (46)

50%

35%

15%

50%

£10,001 - £20,000 (259)

45%

24%

31%

55%

£20,001 - £40,000 (449)

29%

26%

45%

71%

£40,001 - £60,000 (365)

26%

21%

53%

74%

£60,001 - £80,000 (188)

22%

19%

59%

78%

£80,001 - £100,000 (127)

32%

16%

52%

68%

More than £100,000 (93)

26%

15%

59%

74%

*Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding

Key

 

Under 60% support for at least £14

 

Over 70% support for at least £14

 

3.3       General Comments on the Police Precept

People were asked to explain the reasons for their response.

Do you have any comments about the police precept that may help us understand your response?

The main themes are:

 

“As long as the extra funds are actually invested in Policing, and hiring new, competent officers, I'm more than happy to pay more. The almost zero presence of Police has undoubtably played a part in the higher levels of crime recently.”

“Throwing money at this situation is a lazy way of chancing a solution. The correct approach is to review and better manage existing funds.”

“Ideally no increase, we are in a cost of living crisis and any increase is a struggle.” 

“Willing to do this ONLY when I see precisely what it will be spent on, how, and how success will be measured.” 

“The police are an important investment in order to keep our streets and homes safe.”